Electricity usage has been rising steadily with economic growth and the increased use of Information Technology. It has climbed from 18.8% in 1961 to 36.5% in 2002 in the share of energy consumption. This upward trend toward a higher percentage of energy consumed for electrical power will continue for the foreseeable future. The economy is shifting to more service- and information-oriented activities, and industries shifting toward more automation. Auto manufacturers are now producing and marketing electric cars. Net electricity consumption is forecasted to more than double between 2003 and 2030, from 14,781 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) to 30,116 billion kWh. The strongest growth in net electricity consumption is projected for the non-OECD economies, averaging 3.9% per year. Robust economic growth in many of the non-OECD countries is expected to boost demand for electricity to run newly purchased home appliances for air conditioning, cooking, space and water heating, and refrigeration. Although expanding use of home appliances and other electronic devices also results in increased demand for electricity in the OECD nations, their more mature infrastructures and slower rates of population expansion result in slower growth for total net electricity consumption, averaging 1.5% per year over the projection horizon.
While oil and coal are still the dominant source of electricity generation, natural gas and renewable energy are the only fuels expected to increase their shares of total world electricity generation in the projections. Renewables is expected to rise from 18% in 2003 to 20% in 2010 before declining slightly to 19% in 2030.
Currently, about two billion people live off the electrical generation and power-grid. This represents a huge market for dispersed energy systems such as photovoltaic generators, small wind turbines, hydrogen fuel cells, and biomass generators that meet rural power needs without the infrastructure of power-grids, pipelines, and power plants. The market potential within the energy-hungry industrial economies for cleaner energy is seen in the rapid growth of wind, solar, and natural gas power. |